In September, the value of GKI's economic sentiment index adjusted for seasonal effects has already been improving for five months. According to the survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co. (www.gki.hu) with the support of the European Union, expectations exceeded slightly the level of last November. In the business sphere expectations improved only in the service sector compared to the level of August, although this increase was significant.
The confidence index of industry stagnated after a five-months improvement and the value of this is index remained at the level of August. The evaluation of the production of the past three months increased whereas expectations concerning production for the next three months improved only slightly. The assessment of the stock of orders remained unchanged, among this export orders increased, but the assessment of stocks of own production increased. In construction the confidence index dropped slightly in September after its three-months increase. The assessment of production concerning the past three months improved somewhat, whereas opinions on both the stock of orders and intentions to employ deteriorated. The confidence index of trade has fluctuated strongly from the beginning of this year and it fell again in September after the significant increase in August. The assessment of sales positions and expected orders deteriorated most, whereas opinions on stocks and intent ions to employ improved.
The pessimism of the companies in services decreased slightly in September, mainly concerning employment and the expected turnover on the short-term. The assessment of the state of business deteriorated compared with the previous month.
In industry firms still expected stagnation in prices, whereas in construction and services those expecting a price reduction were still in majority. In trade firms expectations on the average price rise in the next three months increased in June -because of the lift of VAT rates - after the low level recorded early this year but it decreased slightly in July and then dropped markedly in August and September. Pessimism to employ eased notably in all sectors except for construction, meanwhile fear from unemployment decreased among households. The prospects of the Hungarian economy improved markedly in both the business sphere and among households.
Expectations of consumers have continued to improve from month to month since May. In addition to the decreasing fear from unemployment and inflation the opinion about their own financial position also turned better.