According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development updated economic outlook report Serbia is likely to post the highest 2010 GDP growth rate in the Southeast European (SEE) region, of just below 2%, driven by a major infrastructure development program and a recovery in metals prices that is helping key industries.
The EBRD, however, revised downwards its forecast for Serbia’s GDP expansion, from 2.1% to 1.9% in 2010 and from 3.2% to 3% in 2011. The SEE region, also including Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Romania, is forecast to post a 1.5% average economic contraction in 2010, compared to a 0.3% growth previously projected by the EBRD. At the same time, the estimate for the region’s 2011 growth was cut from 2.9% to 1.2%.
The steepest fall in 2010, of 3%, is expected in Romania, while the economies of Bulgaria and Montenegro are expected to shrink by 1.2% and 0.1%, respectively.
The growth projections for the EBRD’s entire region of operations have been revised downwards since the last forecasts in May, by 0.2 percentage points for 2010, to 3.5%, and by 0.1 percentage points for 2011, to 3.9%.